2 posts tagged “bond insurers”
I have written about bond insurers before and I guess I will have to write about them again. I still think their role in the current crisis is not fully appreciated in most mainstream media ((in Europe)). Some people hoped for a bailout of troubled US bond insurers by Mr Buffett but...
Troubled bond insurers shouldn't expect any financial backing from Warren Buffett's holding company.
Buffett told Fox Business News Tuesday that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. won't invest in Ambac Financial Group or MBIA Inc.
"We could have some kind of insurance transaction with them, but we will not be investing in them or any other bond insurer," Buffett said to Fox.
Source: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8UKFDV81.htm
PS: Further downgrades will be coming sooner or later...
http://www.thestreet.com/s/fitch-again-warns-on-bond-insurers/newsanalysis/financial-services/10402188.html
So that's left to do ? Change the current AAA rating system and reassure create "security" through obscurity...
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4637bc0-d38d-11dc-b861-0000779fd2ac.html
Expect more troubles with bank shares and further ((consumer)) credit writedowns and crunches.
Die US-Kreditkrise erinnert immer mehr an Aussagen von Warren Buffett im Jahr 2003 ((damals allgemeiner zu Derivativgeschäften gemacht)):
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/2817995.stm
Namen von Bondversicherern wie ACA Financial oder Ambac sagen wohl den wenigsten Leuten etwas, doch standen sie und nicht nur bekannte Banknamen zunehmend im Zentrum der Krise. Gefährlich ist, wenn die Versicherer in Schieflage geraten und die Banken somit zu mehr Abschreibungen zwingen...
On Wednesday, Merrill Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ) said it wrote down $3 billion of hedges with a counterparty that had slipped to junk grade during the fourth quarter, $2.6 billion of that write-down for hedges to asset-backed collateralized-debt obligations.
The counterparty was the troubled bond insurer ACA Financial Guaranty, which Moody's cut dramatically from A to triple-C one day in December. Canada's CIBC is also on the hook for $2 billion in insurance it bought from ACA to hedge its CDO positions.
Ich schrieb bereits im November zu ACA Financial, das Thema wurde damals nicht gross behandelt in der europäischen Presse...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alp4SqlmAapQ&refer=home
Im Klartext aus dem neuen Artikel auf Forbes.com sind weiterhin hohe Summen und weitere Bondversicherer in Gefahr ((durch baldige Herabstufung ihrer Ratings)) - und damit weitere Banken als Gegenparteien...
In recent years, Ambac, MBIA (nyse: MBE - news - people ) and others have ventured into insuring credit derivatives and other relatively newfangled fixed-income products invented by and peddled by Wall Street. Ambac guaranteed $38 billion of debt linked to subprime mortgages and has exposure to $45 billion of other mortgage investments.
The banks, as counterparties, are on the hook for billions in insurance they bought to hedge credit-derivatives positions. The insurance policies, called credit default swaps, have exploded in popularity in the last few years, with some $45 trillion outstanding.
Closely watched bond guru Bill Gross of Pacific Investment Management calls banks' participation in the CDS market a ponzi scheme that may trigger losses of $250 billion.
Bank disclosure is sketchy, and the market is hard to evaluate for lack of information. Credit default swaps are sold over the counter, are not traded on an exchange and are outside the close scrutiny of regulators.
"The ultimate systemic risk caused by the weakened positions of the monoline insurers is overwhelming and scary," said CIBC World Markets analyst Meredith Whitney in a late-December research note. "The impact will be sizable and very negative for the banks."
Source: http://www.forbes.com/home/wallstreet/2008/01/17/ambac-debt-credit-biz-wall-cx_lm_0117ambac.html
PS: So gesehen kann aus Schweizer Sicht die Aktionärsversammlung der UBS im kommenden Februar noch ganz "lustig" werden im Februar. Die Credit Suisse kann sich aber auch nicht richtig freuen auf lange Sicht gemäss Analysten...
http://www.tagesanzeiger.ch/dyn/news/wirtschaft/832944.html
