19 posts tagged “economy”
Since many rumor mongers merger conspiracy theorists have linked the two companies for years (( I don't actually believe they will merge, cultural differences aside...)) here's an interesting financial comparison:
Many people ((even analysts)) viewed both Apple and Nintendo as "normal" hardware manufacturers for many years, that is finally changing.
The intimate intertwining between specific hardware and software ((eg. Apple's iLife suite on Apple computers or the Mario game franchise on Nintendo consoles)) makes them special, creates incredible customer loyalty and lasting competitive advantages ((high net margins that are hard to break into rapidly, especially on the software side)).
Yet another rant on oil. Good article...
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4007
(( Given the recent price hikes at the gas pumps worldwide and main stream press coverage, there might be some interest :) ))
Sometimes an article headline is so good that I just had to copy-paste...
Oil prices, now $130 a barrel, have risen six-fold since 2002. On Wednesday, heating oil reached a record high above $3.90 a gallon and the price is expected to stay high.
Heating oil, which cost $3.29 a gallon in January, will likely cost $3.83 in December, according to the government's Energy Information Administration.
Those costs come at a time of rising food prices, forcing people to spend more on basics as wages fail to keep up. The effects on the economy could be profound.
"The American consumer will continue to pay for fuel, food and heat," said University of Maryland economist Peter Morici.
"But they will give everything else up," he said. "That's going to make it harder to sell the average consumer a television, a suit, or even a meal at a restaurant."
Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2248967220080522?sp=true
ROFL...
Warren Buffett revealed during his Swiss news conference today that he broke his toe last week during a visit to the home of his "extremely good friend" Bill Gates.
And, he quipped, if his lawsuit against Gates is successful, he'll be able to increase his lead over the Microsoft chairman on the Forbes list of global billionaires. Buffett is currently number one on that list, followed by Gates.
Source: http://www.cnbc.com/id/24725325
On a more serious note on banks and risk management...
http://www.cash.ch/video/?firstProjectID=3162
Twilight in the Desert.
Teil 1...
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axUZLDnNnHgM&refer=home
Teil 2 ...
- Political Capital ★
Today:
Saudi Arabia Friday rebuffed President Bush’s request to immediately pump more oil to lower record prices, saying it does not see enough demand to increase production.
Eight years ago:
Gov. George W. Bush of Texas said today that if he was president, he would bring down gasoline prices through sheer force of personality, by creating enough political good will with oil-producing nations that they would increase their supply of crude.
“I would work with our friends in OPEC to convince them to open up the spigot, to increase the supply,” Mr. Bush, the presumptive Republican candidate for president, told reporters here today. “Use the capital that my administration will earn, with the Kuwaitis or the Saudis, and convince them to open up the spigot.”
Source: http://daringfireball.net/linked/2008/may#fri-16-bush
To be continued.
caps.fool.com was the first ((international)) online fantasy stock market I was familiar with. It has been around for years and it's great, also has a great community. But it has three flaws if you want to use it as a trading simulation ...
- You have unlimited funds. You can buy/add new stocks at any time. This results in most players adding hundreds of stocks to their active portfolios.
- The transaction costs are simulated with a simplified 0-5% ((neutral)) and 5%+ ((positive)) percentage rating when you beat the index.
- You can get rid ((sell)) stocks easily by ending them without having a substantial loss, other than your ranking. Since funds are unlimited, you can ((at least try to)) make up your losses by adding new picks.
Enter Updown.com which was been around for almost 12 months now. You have a virtual ((one)) million dollar fund and there are several restrictions ie. you can
- only sink 20% of your portfolio into a single stocks and there are additional restrictions for stocks with smaller trading volumes ((only about 5% of the daily trading maximum if I remember correctly))
- there are transaction costs (("virtual" $100 for each buy and sell)) and you can set trading orders and limits up to 60 days into the future.
Most importantly, you have that limited amount of money and can't just add buy/sell recommendations. In short, it's a great simulation of the stock market. I have been on Updown.com for one month now ((since April 16, 2008)) and I am up 29,7% so far...
http://www.updown.com/displayProfile.do?id=64740
((I think it's not too bad considering there no options and you can't pick a single stock and just sit back because of the limitations. Currently, I have about 15 stocks in the portfolio ))
I have taken an optimistic view ((buys only)), so I don't think I can uphold that momentum this calendar year because I think valuations are ((too)) high if you take into account that consumers will spend much less in the coming months and company earnings and therefore P/E and PEG ratios may look worse...
The only issue with Updown ((not a flaw since it's targeted at the US market for now, I guess)): You can't pick many European stocks ((unless they are traded as ADRs on the NASDAQ or NSE)) so it's harder to play along for people like me compared to US players.
Finally a good and up-to-date list here...
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/apr2008/pi2008045_506665.htm?campaign_id=rss_tech
I especially like Seeking Alpha ((although the quality of the contributors varies wildy)) and B.I.G.
Rotten financial eggs are coming this Easter Holiday. Ouch. Bear Sterns share price probably looks like the Atari stock chart ((but in a much shorter timeframe)) come Monday...
The $2 per share basically sets down an important market marker: For now, being a Wall Street trading house is no longer a license to print money. It’s a license to absorb plenty of risks. Risks so presumably so toxic and unknown that J.P. Morgan had to turn to the Fed in the way it did.
Source: http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2008/03/16/you-are-not-misreading-bear-stearns-is-worth-2-per-share
Who's next in the butcher ((aka rescue)) line ? Lehman Brothers ?
http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ALEH
A few rumors are enough in this market situation to create another run on yet another broker / bank. Meanwhile, Helicopter Ben is airborne once again with rate cuts and more liquidity...
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/fed-acts-sunday-prevent-global/story.aspx?guid=%7B43265631-1656-4697-8377-55F05D859B76%7D
More tomorrow in a new episode of "As the Markets Tumble"...
Oel bei USD 111, Wechselkurs USD/ CHF .99, Gold über USD 1000....
...und einige der grössten Hedge Funds und (Investment-)Banken stehen kurz vor dem Kollaps ((siehe heute Bear Sterns, nachdem einige Hedge Funds ganz geschlossen werden mussten bzw. aufgelöst wurden, Leverage sei dank)).
Das Erstaunlichste dabei: Die Börsen sind immer noch nicht stark eingebrochen angesichts dieser Zahlen. Wenn man diese Zahlen einem Experten vor 1 bis 2 Jahren vorgelegt hätte, hätte er sie wohl erstens nicht geglaubt ((mit Ausnahme der Dollarschwäche)) und zweitens die Märkte in diesem Fall sehr viel tiefer gesehen.
Ein weiterer Grund bzw. aktuelles Fallbeispiel, warum man Experten-Prognosen in diesem Bereich sehr skeptisch gegenüberstehen sollte.
Pack comes with a money chopper...
http://www.businessweek.com/the_thread/hotproperty/bernanke-helicopter.jpg
Warning: May cause inflation later on.
