Marc's Webvox [Memex My Brain]

Last Bull Standing ((Jim Cramer close to capitulation))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Mon, 06 Oct 2008 14:26:49 -0700

Love him or hate the market comments by Jim Cramer, but he's usually both very bullish and influential in the US. Well, the bullish part is gone for now...

Jim Oct 6, 2008

This won't create more confidence in the US for sure....unless you consider half a decade is worth waiting for the stock submarine to submerge again.

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Die Börse an turbulenten Tagen ((Wochenrückblick))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Mon, 22 Sep 2008 02:23:11 -0700

Zyklen kommen und gehen, Daytrader kommen und gehen...

Buy_sell

...Value Investoren bleiben :)

PS: Die ~~Menschen~~ Männer sind schuld an dieser Hektik...
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2008/09/19/2369255.htm

...und Hollywood wird sich des Themas auch wieder annehmen 20 Jahre nach "Wall Street", offenbar wieder mit Michael Douglas in der Hauptrolle:
http://www.cinematical.com/2007/05/05/gordon-gekko-will-rise-again-in-money-never-sleeps/

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Think oil prices hurt now? Just wait ((Copy-paste))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Tue, 27 May 2008 06:22:23 -0700

Sometimes an article headline is so good that I just had to copy-paste...

Oil prices, now $130 a barrel, have risen six-fold since 2002. On Wednesday, heating oil reached a record high above $3.90 a gallon and the price is expected to stay high.
Heating oil, which cost $3.29 a gallon in January, will likely cost $3.83 in December, according to the government's Energy Information Administration.
Those costs come at a time of rising food prices, forcing people to spend more on basics as wages fail to keep up. The effects on the economy could be profound.
"The American consumer will continue to pay for fuel, food and heat," said University of Maryland economist Peter Morici.
"But they will give everything else up," he said. "That's going to make it harder to sell the average consumer a television, a suit, or even a meal at a restaurant."

Source: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN2248967220080522?sp=true

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Sharewise.com Fantasy Stock Market ((Pure Speculation III))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Wed, 21 May 2008 16:30:19 -0700

Ich hatte vor kurzem über das Börsenspiel Updown.com geschrieben, wo ich seit Mitte April dabei bin. Der einzige Nachteil an Updown ist die Tatsache, dass man nur wenige ausländische Aktien auswählen kann.

Nun habe ich eine deutsche Seite entdeckt, die das Modell von caps.fool.com in Europa ((mit einigen Aenderungen)) anbietet: Sharewise.com

((Somit wäre mein Geschäftsidee, die ich vor 4 Jahren hatte, leider noch nicht in Europa umgesetzt. Konkret ein europäisches Pendant zu Updown.com, jedenfalls habe ich noch keine Seite entdeckt, wo das Portfolio permanent läuft mit Screensavern zum persönlichen Stand der Dinge und anderen Infos....gut mittlerweile gibt es ja ausreichend Widgets via Windows Vista bzw. OS X, so dass man den Screensaver vergessen könnte ;) ))

Habe mir deshalb die Mühe gemacht und bin noch einmal neu eingestiegen auf dieser deutschen Sharewise-Seite, auf der alle in Frankfurt handelbaren Titel ((deutsche wie ausländische Titel)) wählbar sind. Die Seite scheint wie erwähnt eher caps.fool.com nachempfunden zu sein, auch hier hat man ((leider)) ein unbeschränktes Portfolio und kann laufend neue Titel auswählen, als erfolgreich gilt, wenn die Aktie mindestens 5% steigt ((bzw. 5% fällt, falls man leer verkauft)).

Somit wären es nun 3 virtuelle Portfolios, die ich seit dem Ende der langjährigen Hausse gestartet habe. Das mag auf den ersten Blick nach viel Aufwand erscheinen aber ich mache nicht viele Transaktionen. Die Auswahl dauerte auch nur ein paar Stunden pro Portfolio:

* Realistische Simulation:

1. Fortlaufendes Portfolio mit virtueller Summe ((1 Million USD)) und virtuellen Transaktionskosten seit Mitte April 2008 ((auf updown.com))

* Stockpicking gegen den Index:

2. Bärenmarkt "Z-Portfolio" bestehend aus 20 ((Edit: neu 25)) Aktien, ausgewählt über 4 Monate zwischen Dezember 2007 und März 2008, nun praktisch keine Transaktionen mehr ((auf caps.fool.com)), entspricht einem realen Portfolio !

3. Portfolio mit Aktien weltweit bestehend aus 250 Aktien gestartet seit Mitte Mai 2008 ((auf sharewise.com))

Das Interessante ist wie im Herbst 2007 geschrieben Aktien-Anlagen zu testen nach einer langjährigen Aufwärtsbewegung ((seit dem Frühling 2003)), wo man wenig falsch machen konnte - ausser vielleicht den Index zu unterbieten.

Kongvestor zu schlagen ist also bedeutend schwieriger geworden seit Ende 2006 bzw. spätestens Mitte/Ende 2007...

http://www.sharewise.com/contests/29/about

...und das ist der Reiz an der Sache. ((An diesem wöchentlichen Spiel "Catch the Monkey" mache ich aber nicht mit, erstens fehlt mir die Zeit und zweitens halte ich wenig von kurzfristiger Spekulation bzw. Trading. Darin war ich noch nie gut :)

Ich werde in den nächsten Wochen oder Monaten mal auf diese 3 Portfolios zurückkommen, damit man die Performance sehen kann.

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Bandwidth Fetish ((Vimeo))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Mon, 19 May 2008 12:28:02 -0700

A WOW effect ((I last had that about video quality at Dailymotion.com about 15 months ago...)) compared to YouTube videos...

http://www.vimeo.com/hd

For example...

http://www.vimeo.com/1002117

At 50 to 100Mbit speeds at home we will have true IPTV in many regions in a few years ((this will also help all LVLT shareholders in the same timeframe :) ))

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Updown.com Fantasy Stock Market ((Pure Speculation II))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Sat, 17 May 2008 03:37:00 -0700

caps.fool.com was the first ((international)) online fantasy stock market I was familiar with. It has been around for years and it's great, also has a great community. But it has three flaws if you want to use it as a trading simulation ...

- You have unlimited funds. You can buy/add new stocks at any time. This results in most players adding hundreds of stocks to their active portfolios.

- The transaction costs are simulated with a simplified 0-5% ((neutral)) and 5%+ ((positive)) percentage rating when you beat the index.

- You can get rid ((sell)) stocks easily by ending them without having a substantial loss, other than your ranking. Since funds are unlimited, you can ((at least try to)) make up your losses by adding new picks.

Enter Updown.com which was been around for almost 12 months now. You have a virtual ((one)) million dollar fund and there are several restrictions ie. you can

- only sink 20% of your portfolio into a single stocks and there are additional restrictions for stocks with smaller trading volumes ((only about 5% of the daily trading maximum if I remember correctly))

- there are transaction costs (("virtual" $100 for each buy and sell)) and you can set trading orders and limits up to 60 days into the future.

Most importantly, you have that limited amount of money and can't just add buy/sell recommendations. In short, it's a great simulation of the stock market. I have been on Updown.com for one month now ((since April 16, 2008)) and I am up 29,7% so far...

http://www.updown.com/displayProfile.do?id=64740

((I think it's not too bad considering there no options and you can't pick a single stock and just sit back because of the limitations. Currently, I have about 15 stocks in the portfolio ))

I have taken an optimistic view ((buys only)), so I don't think I can uphold that momentum this calendar year because I think valuations are ((too)) high if you take into account that consumers will spend much less in the coming months and company earnings and therefore P/E and PEG ratios may look worse...

The only issue with Updown ((not a flaw since it's targeted at the US market for now, I guess)): You can't pick many European stocks ((unless they are traded as ADRs on the NASDAQ or NSE)) so it's harder to play along for people like me compared to US players.

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Google vs Microsoft Revenue Outlook ((Monopoly Crystal Ball))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Wed, 14 May 2008 15:06:30 -0700

Outlook ? Make that Google Calendar... ((cheapo pun. Hey, it's a free blog ; ))

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/5/google_to_surpass_size_of_microsoft_windows_in_2009

(( The author's name will give some readers a bad "New Economy" ~~flashback~~ headache, but the article is actually interesting and worth reading))

Other bad news for Microsoft stock holders is the tendency of some large customers to skip Windows Vista and stick with XP until Windows 7 is out...

http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/may2008/tc20080512_157155.htm?campaign_id=yhoo

I have only see anecdotical evidence of this so far, it will be interesting to look at the numbers.

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Happy Valentine ((Microsoft & Yahoo))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Mon, 11 Feb 2008 21:22:22 -0800

This isn't over...

http://www.engadget.com/2008/02/11/microsoft-to-yahoo-come-back-this-isnt-over/

((Don't miss the great Steve Ballmer picture !))

I guess Ballmer will pay more and end up wining the Y!, there's no other bidder in the current market environment to counter MS. Ugly marriage ahead...I wouldn't call it AOL-Time Warner 2.0, but MS will probably overpay and still be a distant number two to Google.

PS: In a less publicized announcement, MS bought mobile phone company Danger. I always thought Apple would gobble up Danger and/or TiVO a few years ago. Which reminds me...what will Apple do with all its money ?

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What Buffett wouldn't buy ((A: Troubled Bond Insurers))

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 00:08:23 -0800

I have written about bond insurers before and I guess I will have to write about them again. I still think their role in the current crisis is not fully appreciated in most mainstream media ((in Europe)). Some people hoped for a bailout of troubled US bond insurers by Mr Buffett but...

Troubled bond insurers shouldn't expect any financial backing from Warren Buffett's holding company.
Buffett told Fox Business News Tuesday that Berkshire Hathaway Inc. won't invest in Ambac Financial Group or MBIA Inc.
"We could have some kind of insurance transaction with them, but we will not be investing in them or any other bond insurer," Buffett said to Fox.

Source: http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D8UKFDV81.htm

PS: Further downgrades will be coming sooner or later...

http://www.thestreet.com/s/fitch-again-warns-on-bond-insurers/newsanalysis/financial-services/10402188.html

So that's left to do ? Change the current AAA rating system and ~~reassure~~ create "security" through obscurity...

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4637bc0-d38d-11dc-b861-0000779fd2ac.html

Expect more troubles with bank shares and further ((consumer)) credit writedowns and crunches.

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What would Buffet buy ?

nobody@vox.com(Marc) — Tue, 05 Feb 2008 16:32:38 -0800

Screener list here..

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2008/pi2008024_505818.htm?campaign_id=rss_daily

and 60 names...

http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/feb2008/pi2008024_956566.htm

As for me ? Maybe nothing :) Outlook isn't good...

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a.4BZHaPgccY&refer=home

The services sector shrank "unexpectedly" ? Hmmm. I always like the optimists out there.

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